In 2023, Canada witnessed one of its most devastating wildfire seasons to date, with Ontario and Quebec being hit particularly hard. Fires raged across both provinces, burning through vast areas of forest and forcing thousands of residents to evacuate. At the time, I was living in Syracuse, New York, and I remember the entire city literally blanketed in smoke, whilst most of the eastern US was under air quality alerts.
As I continued my GIS research on wildfires, it became clear that understanding what happened in Ontario and Quebec—and why it was so unprecedented—would be critical to better preparing for the future. As a result, I have decided to shift the focus of my project to these two provinces.
Shifting focus to Ontario & Quebec
Ontario and Quebec are known for their rich and diverse forests, ranging from the boreal regions in the north to temperate hardwood forests further south. This diversity is both a strength and a vulnerability, as different forest types respond to fire in unique ways. The 2023 wildfire season brought this into sharp focus, with both provinces experiencing significant fires that affected communities, ecosystems, and air quality across North America.
Several factors made 2023 especially severe:
- Record-Breaking Dryness: Prolonged periods of low precipitation and high temperatures created the perfect conditions for wildfires to ignite and spread. In some areas, drought conditions had been building for months.
- Lightning and Human Activity: Many fires were sparked by lightning, but human activities also played a role, whether through accidental ignitions or planned burns that got out of control.
- Impact of Climate Change: As global temperatures rise, the frequency and intensity of wildfires are expected to increase. The events of 2023 served as a stark reminder of how climate change is reshaping the natural fire regimes of Ontario and Quebec.
By focusing on these regions, I aim to better understand the underlying patterns and factors that led to such an extreme wildfire season and explore ways to mitigate similar events in the future.
New Goals and Objectives
With this shift in focus, my research objectives have also evolved:
- Detailed Analysis of 2023 Wildfires: I will analyze the spatial patterns of the 2023 wildfires in Ontario and Quebec, mapping the burn scars and affected areas. This will involve using remote sensing data to visualize how the fires spread over time and the regions they impacted most severely.
- Investigating Climatic Influences: Given the critical role that climate conditions played in 2023, my research will emphasize analyzing temperature, precipitation, and drought indices. Understanding how these factors correlated with fire outbreaks can help in anticipating similar conditions in the future.
- Comparative Analysis with Previous Seasons: To put 2023 into context, I will compare it with previous wildfire seasons in Ontario and Quebec. This will help highlight what made 2023 an outlier and identify any trends that may indicate a shift in wildfire behavior over the years.
Tools and Data Sources
For this refined focus, I will continue to rely on a variety of data sources, but with an emphasis on regional data specific to Ontario and Quebec:
- Canadian Wildland Fire Information System (CWFIS): This will provide detailed fire history data, including the 2023 season.
- Remote Sensing Data: MODIS, Sentinel-2, and Landsat imagery will be crucial for mapping burn scars and monitoring vegetation changes.
- Provincial Climate Data: Data from Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) will be used to assess drought indices and weather conditions leading up to and during the fires.
- Community and Infrastructure Data: Geospatial data on populated areas, transportation networks, and critical infrastructure will help assess the human impact of the fires.
What’s Next?
The next phase of this project involves diving into the 2023 wildfire data for Ontario and Quebec and creating initial maps to visualize the scale and spread of the fires. I’m especially interested in seeing how factors like elevation and vegetation type influenced the behavior of the fires, and how climate patterns compared to those of previous years.